Energy Giants Confront Glut With Wave of Write-Downs
December 20 2019 - 9:26AM
Dow Jones News
By Sarah McFarlane
LONDON -- Royal Dutch Shell PLC joined a clutch of big oil
companies that have taken big financial hits because of a global
glut of oil and gas.
Shell said Friday that it would take an impairment charge of
around $2 billion and warned of lower margins in its refining,
chemicals and retail businesses given the weaker economic
outlook.
The company didn't offer details about the posttax impairment
charge, but analysts said it is likely linked to lower projections
for gas prices. Shell also indicated up to $1 billion in additional
charges from well write-offs, decommissioning costs and deferred
tax charges.
Shell's announcement follows a write-down of more than $10
billion by Chevron Corp. earlier this month, the largest by an
energy producer in years. Spain's Repsol SA, the U.K.'s BP PLC and
Norway's Equinor ASA have also cut asset values in recent
months.
Energy companies are grappling with one of the U.S. shale boom's
unintended consequences: a global oversupply of natural gas. As a
result, companies are predicting weaker-than-expected U.S. gas
prices in the coming years.
Among the energy majors, Exxon Mobil Corp. and BP have the
greatest exposure to U.S. gas at 12% of their production, followed
by Chevron and Shell at 5%, according to RBC Capital Markets.
Doubts over future demand for oil and gas are also weighing on
the sector. In the past decade, the energy industry has switched
from worrying about running out of oil and gas, to predicting
demand for fossil fuels will peak within 20 years as the world
moves to cut carbon emissions.
The falling value of assets on big oil companies' balance sheets
could push up a closely watched measure of their financial
stability, and in turn affect investor returns.
Shell's announcement Friday prompted a 1% fall in the company's
share price in London, potentially driving up its gearing level --
the ratio of market capitalization to debt.
"This is likely to put pressure on gearing and hence raise the
risk that Shell will moderate its current pace of buybacks," said
Colin Smith, an analyst at Panmure Gordon.
Some companies, including BP and Shell, link shareholder returns
to gearing targets.
Shell has a gearing level of around 28% and is targeting 25%. BP
has the highest gearing level among its peers at 36% including
leases, but has said it is aiming to reduce the number below
30%.
Further impairments could be on the way from Exxon and BP,
according to analysts.
Exxon didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
BP Chief Financial Officer Brian Gilvary said in October that he
wasn't expecting any major impairments in the company's
fourth-quarter results, due Feb. 4. The expectation, he said,
depended on whether the company sold more U.S. gas assets and what
sale prices were in relation to their book value.
"Gearing and net debt coming down will be a strong signal in
terms of [shareholder] distributions," said Mr. Gilvary.
Falling costs across the sector, partly driven by developments
in technology such as predictive maintenance to extract oil and gas
more efficiently, are another driver for lower oil-and-gas price
assumptions, according to analysts.
Digitization has contributed $1 billion to Shell's cash flow,
via cost reductions, production increases and increased customer
margins, the company said at a technology event it hosted in
Amsterdam in November.
"If costs are going to be coming down then a number of the
companies will have to look at the oil and gas price assumptions
they use," said Lydia Rainforth, an analyst at Barclays, adding
that prices tend to follow costs.
According to the bank, however, energy companies' forecasts for
Brent oil prices in 2025 range from $70 to $90 a barrel, higher
than the current level of around $66 a barrel.
Write to Sarah McFarlane at sarah.mcfarlane@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 20, 2019 09:11 ET (14:11 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Equinor ASA (NYSE:EQNR)
Historical Stock Chart
From Mar 2024 to Apr 2024
Equinor ASA (NYSE:EQNR)
Historical Stock Chart
From Apr 2023 to Apr 2024